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Newsweek April 28, 1978
There are ominous signs
that the Earth?? weather patterns have begun to
change dramatically and that these changes may
portend a drastic decline in food production ??with
serious political implications for just about every
nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin
quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The
regions destined to feel its impact are the great
wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in
the North, along with a number of marginally
self-sufficient tropical areas ??parts of India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia ??
where the growing season is dependent upon the rains
brought by the monsoon. Polished stainless steel crown, engraved with "IWC " brand LOGO drawings, given the an exclusive brand charm. In addition, it is made of non-slip texture, combined with the delicate touch, make the uk replica watches debugging of the swiss replica watches more convenient and quick.
The evidence in support of these predictions has
now begun to accumulate so massively that
meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.
In England, farmers have seen their growing season
decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a
resultant overall loss in grain production estimated
at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same
time, the average temperature around the equator has
risen by a fraction of a degree ??a fraction that in
some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last
April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes
ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300
people and caused half a billion dollars??worth of
damage in 13 U.S. states.
To scientists, these seemingly disparate
incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental
changes in the world?? weather. The central fact is
that after three quarters of a century of
extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth?? climate
seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree
about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as
well as over its specific impact on local weather
conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the
view that the trend will reduce agricultural
productivity for the rest of the century. If the
climatic change is as profound as some of the
pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be
catastrophic. ?? major climatic change would force
economic and social adjustments on a worldwide
scale,??warns a recent report by the National
Academy of Sciences, ??ecause the global patterns of
food production and population that have evolved are
implicitly dependent on the climate of the present
century.??
A survey completed last
year by Dr. Murray Mitchell of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration reveals a drop of
half a degree in average ground temperatures in the
Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968. According
to George Kukla of Columbia University, satellite
photos indicated a sudden, large increase in
Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the winter of
1971-72. And a study released last month by two NOAA
scientists notes that the amount of sunshine
reaching the ground in the continental U.S.
diminished by 1.3% between 1964 and 1972.
To the layman, the relatively small changes in
temperature and sunshine can be highly misleading.
Reid Bryson of the University of Wisconsin points
out that the Earth?? average temperature during the
great Ice Ages was only about seven degrees lower
than during its warmest eras ??and that the present
decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the
way toward the Ice Age average. Others regard the
cooling as a reversion to the ??ittle ice age??
conditions that brought bitter winters to much of
Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900 ??
years when the Thames used to freeze so solidly that
Londoners roasted oxen on the ice and when iceboats
sailed the Hudson River almost as far south as New
York City.
Just what causes the onset of major and minor ice
ages remains a mystery. ??ur knowledge of the
mechanisms of climatic change is at least as
fragmentary as our data,??concedes the National
Academy of Sciences report. ??ot only are the basic
scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many
cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key
questions.??
Meteorologists think that
they can forecast the short-term results of the
return to the norm of the last century. They begin
by noting the slight drop in overall temperature
that produces large numbers of pressure centers in
the upper atmosphere. These break up the smooth flow
of westerly winds over temperate areas. The stagnant
air produced in this way causes an increase in
extremes of local weather such as droughts, floods,
extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons
and even local temperature increases ??all of which
have a direct impact on food supplies.
??he world?? food-producing system,??warns Dr.
James D. McQuigg of NOAA?? Center for Climatic and
Environmental Assessment, ??s much more sensitive to
the weather variable than it was even five years
ago.??Furthermore, the growth of world population
and creation of new national boundaries make it
impossible for starving peoples to migrate from
their devastated fields, as they did during past
famines.
Climatologists are pessimistic that political
leaders will take any positive action to compensate
for the climatic change, or even to allay its
effects. They concede that some of the more
spectacular solutions proposed, such as melting the
Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or
diverting arctic rivers, might create problems far
greater than those they solve. But the scientists
see few signs that government leaders anywhere are
even prepared to take the simple measures of
stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of
climatic uncertainty into economic projections of
future food supplies. The longer the planners delay,
the more difficult will they find it to cope with
climatic change once the results become grim
reality.
??/i>PETER GWYNNE with bureau
reports
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